2014: Checking in.

The appearance of January 1st used to mean a few weeks of learning to use the correct year when writing checks.  Mistakes were rare, but they happened, and after writing, say, 25 checks in the first month of the year, writing the correct year became much more automatic.

Not so much this year, though.  Twenty one checks was the total for 2013 compared to 220 for 1998, a 15 percent annual decline over the 15 years.  The nearly automatic act of writing checks, interrupted by the annual year change, is now an unusual event, and remembering the correct year has been replaced by remembering how to write a check.

I had to order checks last month; I was down to seven blank checks--a four month supply.   I was offered a discount if I ordered two boxes, but one box of  should last at least six years.  Who knows where I will be living, which bank I will use, or even if checks will still be used.  So just one box thanks.  And no need to pay extra for overnight shipping of the new checks; the US Postal Service will do nicely.  

And I had to think hard about the check reorder process because my last check order was ten years ago. One change: a box of checks has gone from 200 to 125 checks. One thing had not changed: ordering checks from the bank was not the least-cost approach.  

My 15 percent annual check writing decline is better than the national average according to the Federal Reserve, which studies the matter every three years.  They report a 4.3 percent annual decline from 2000 to 2003, a 6.4 percent annual decline from 2003 to 2006, and a 7.1 percent annual decline from 2006 to 2009.  

This change has reduced mail volumes carried by the US Postal Service.  Most of the 220 checks I wrote in 1998 left my house in an envelope with a stamp on it.  That's about 200 mail pieces that the Postal Service doesn't see any more.  I don't get my statements and bills electronically, so the USPS hasn't taken a hit on that mail volume for me--yet.  But many people do, and if I did, well, that's another 200 pieces of lost revenue each year.  

A study commissioned for the US Postal Service and released in 2010 reported a 3.5 percent annual decline in first class mail per delivery address between the year 2000 and 2009, and projects a 5.2 percent annual decline through 2020.  The study identifies electronic payments and electronic statements as key drivers of these declines.   

According to a 2010 US Government Accountability Office study, first class mail is highly profitable and generates revenue that covers 70 percent of the Postal Service's overhead.  So as we go electronic, expect the Postal Service to go, well, Postal.